How Big Was the Bang at Deismaar?

> -----Original Message-----
> From: Birthright Roleplaying Game Discussion
> [mailto:BIRTHRIGHT-L@ORACLE.WIZARDS.COM]On Behalf Of Gary

> This is interesting because estimates of the numbers of people present at
> Deismaar–not just the above one but all that have been suggested–are
> remarkably smaller than I had thought they would be. I don`t know why but

I had just assumed it was a fantastically (impossibly) large battle
involving nearly all the able-bodied combatant in Cerilia and Aduria for
about 500 miles… It was the kind of thing that the gods themselves
showed up at–even a dragon or two showed up–so it seems likely that they
would have “called” everyone to the battle that they could, and because of
the nature of that call everyone who could appear would have.

Battles involving the tens of thousands are, of course, huge endeavors and
nothing to sniff at. I had thought it would have been on a scale not
really possible to represent in BR “domain level” terms; hundreds of
thousands, maybe into the lower 7 digits and an explosion that covered a
couple of provinces.

Well, that is certainly possible, and perhaps I am giving less credit to the
new Cerilians than they deserve. I tend to think of them as refugees, but
theyve been settled in Cerilia for hundreds of years before Azrai decides to move in, havent they?

However, I really think we need to think of the Tribes as Tribal in
organization before Deismaar. I dont think they really got organized in a feudal or imperial manner until after Deismaar, when Haelyns New Ideas
finally managed to supplant the inherent conservatism of the priests of
Anduiras (and similarly for the other cultures). So I`m resistant to the
idea that there were millions of humans in Cerilia to participate in
Deismaar. Sure the Andu had settled down and picked up agriculture to a much
larger extent than they had in Aduria, but I would argue that it was still
at a fairly primitive level, perhaps akin to early manorialism ca 800 CE.

> Yikes, that`d make for less than a thousand scions after

Deismaar. I think
there should be more than that.

Why? The thing about biological organisms is that they tend to increase in
number over time (unless limited by their environment). It seems to me that
a logical question when dealing with a heritable trait that confers a
pronounced fitness benefit is why it HASNT spread to the entire population. Part of my logic for keeping the numbers of individuals that survived Deismaar low is to explain why scions arent more common. Part of the answer
may be that the trait also leads to a decrease in reproductive success.
Upper classes do tend to have lower birth rates, but I think that over the
years there were many lords who would dally with any wench who would have
them (or whom they could coerse), and many a lord who enjoyed rapine as one
of the rewards of success on the battlefield. Perhaps scions have reduced
fertility for some reason, or reduced reproductive success with non-scions.

Mark V.


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At 04:11 PM 3/21/2003 -0600, Mark Van der Meulen wrote:

>>I had thought it would have been on a scale not really possible to
>>represent in BR “domain level” terms; hundreds of thousands, maybe into
>>the lower 7 digits and an explosion that covered a couple of provinces.
>
>Well, that is certainly possible, and perhaps I am giving less credit to the
>new Cerilians than they deserve. I tend to think of them as refugees, but
>they`ve been settled in Cerilia for hundreds of years before Azrai decides

to move in, haven`t they?

Definitely true, plus one has to take into consideration that while they
were “refugees” it`s very possible to look at them not so much as fleeing
as fighting a sort of forced migration–the long-term cultural equivalent
of a fighting withdrawal. Many real world peoples of very fierce
reputation were themselves being forced out of their homelands by other
aggressive cultures in the long standing push and shove of culture
clash. Several of the Cerilian cultures are based, in fact, on real world
cultures that have had long periods of just that kind of paradigm.

Probably another thing to consider is that Cerilia is the end of the tether
in that process for many of the people who travelled there. The
convergence of cultures on Cerilia indicates that there was no place else
to go. The Battle of Deismaar could represent for many of the participants
a sort of massive last stand and, therefore, attract all able bodied
combatants amongst peoples long inured to war.

You know, the more I think about this the more interested I am in running a
“background” BR campaign. Several folks have presented there ideas for
such a campaign in the past, I`ll have to go through the archives to check
them out…

>However, I really think we need to think of the Tribes as Tribal in
>organization before Deismaar. I don`t think they really got organized in a

feudal or imperial manner until after Deismaar, when Haelyns New Ideas >finally managed to supplant the inherent conservatism of the priests of >Anduiras (and similarly for the other cultures). So Im resistant to the
idea that there were millions of humans in Cerilia to participate in
Deismaar. Sure the Andu had settled down and picked up agriculture to a much
larger extent than they had in Aduria, but I would argue that it was still
at a fairly primitive level, perhaps akin to early manorialism ca 800 CE.

“Tribes” is, I think, a slightly deceptive term in this regard. It bears
too much of a resemblance to what many people see as small, relatively
undeveloped communities. One could look at the Mongol hordes as existing
in a cultural system that was largely tribal, yet sophisticated in many
regards and certainly highly populated. Tribe is more of a distinction of
heritage and identity than a statement of cultural/technical development in
regards to the Andurians IMO.

Yikes, thatd make for less than a thousand scions after > > Deismaar. I think > > there should be more than that. > >Why? The thing about biological organisms is that they tend to increase in >number over time (unless limited by their environment). It seems to me that >a logical question when dealing with a heritable trait that confers a >pronounced fitness benefit is why it HASNT spread to the entire population.

Well, youre the biologist so Im sure youre much more familiar with this kind of thing that I, but I would suggest two main factors. The first is the decline of bloodline scores over the generations. They arent really
the same as a biological trait in that unless actively selected for (bred)
or passed on through investiture they will disappear in a few
generations. A bloodline score of 63 or lower will breed out of a
population–if not maintained–in six generations or less.

63
31
15
7
3
1
0

Personally, I think it might make more sense to have bloodline inherit
based more on bloodline strength than bloodline score for a couple of
reasons, mostly having to do with some ideas one what bloodline actually
represents and practical game mechanics. In such a system, however, a
tainted bloodline of any score will “breed out” in one generation if mated
with a commoner. That is not, of course, canon so take it or leave it.

There`ve been somewhere in the neighborhood of 60-80 generations since
Deismaar, so special care must be made to preserve these bloodlines or they
would have long since died out.

The other factor is that the survivability of scions might be somewhat
debatable… They do, of course, gain blood abilities that help them
survive in relation to commoners, but they are also targets for other
scions, making bloodline a somewhat cannibalistic biological trait. I
remember reading a short story many years ago that presented the idea that
intelligence was not really a survival trait for a species since it seems
to lead inevitably to self-extinction. There could be a similar situation
where bloodline is concerned–particularly in BR where the gods themselves
suicided. Divinity would, therefore, be a short-term survivability factor,
but a long term dead end, and bloodline the beginning of the process of
divinity that eventually fails. Many fantasy settings and much fantasy
literature premise the death of the gods in the face of the rising power of
technology, so I think that fits into what is a fairly universal fantasy theme.

Both of these factors would be much more significant in the years
immediately after the battle, so there would have been a dramatic “die off”
of bloodlines in the next several generations. The methods needed to
preserve bloodline and how they were passed on to subsequent generations
would probably have taken at least a generation or three to
discover. There would be no investiture ceremony that passed a bloodline
from one character to another immediately after the battle–unless one
supposes that knowledge was somehow divinely gifted to scions. How long
might it have taken to develop that ability? I dont know, but Id think
it would take years to explore the powers of a bloodline at the domain level.

The “averaging” of parents bloodlines in their offspring would similarly have been unknown to scions in the years immediately after the battle. I generally assume that a bloodline and blood abilities dont manifest until
a child reaches maturity, so unless one is again assuming that knowledge of
how these things work is gifted to scions somehow along with their
bloodline, even the knowledge that the bloodline was inherited would be
unknown for 16-17 years after the battle. Also, unless there was a
fantastic number of camp followers and/or an unusual number of women
warriors on the battlefield most scions would be returning home to mates
who were themselves commoners. The later diffusion of blooded characters
through the population of Cerilia would make the opportunities for
preserving bloodline through breeding much more difficult. If there are
less than a thousand of them there would be only a few in each province on
average. (More in more densely populated provinces, of course.)

Initially after the battle I imagine there was a brief flurry of
bloodthefts that further whittled away at the numbers of scions available
for “breeding purposes” in subsequent generations. This would be possible
mostly because immediately after the battle is the only occasion when so
many blooded characters would have been within proximity of one another,
and because they already arrived to kill each other in the first
place. How many scions died at each others hands in the days after the battle? Thats hard to say, of course, but I`d guess the percentage
somewhere in the lower double digits.

Part of my logic for keeping the numbers of individuals that survived
Deismaar low is to explain why scions aren`t more common. Part of the answer
>may be that the trait also leads to a decrease in reproductive success.
>Upper classes do tend to have lower birth rates, but I think that over the
>years there were many lords who would dally with any wench who would have
>them (or whom they could coerse), and many a lord who enjoyed rapine as one
>of the rewards of success on the battlefield. Perhaps scions have reduced
>fertility for some reason, or reduced reproductive success with non-scions.

Personally, I like to think that the number of blooded characters has been
steadily increasing over the centuries, but in a way that is quite
slow. If there are 10 million Cerilians (all that Cerilian Census stuff I
did a few years ago indicated more like 5-6 million, but that`s very low,
more like 20-25 million would probably be a better number) at present and 1
in a thousand of them are scions that makes for 10,000 blooded
characters. A more “realistic” population would make for 20-25,000
scions. If half that number survived Deismaar I think that would be about
right.

Gary


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> -----Original Message-----
> From: Birthright Roleplaying Game Discussion

> “Tribes” is, I think, a slightly deceptive term in this regard. It bears
> too much of a resemblance to what many people see as small, relatively
> undeveloped communities. One could look at the Mongol hordes as existing
> in a cultural system that was largely tribal, yet sophisticated in many
> regards and certainly highly populated. Tribe is more of a distinction of
> heritage and identity than a statement of cultural/technical
> development in
> regards to the Andurians IMO.

Well, be that as it may, I still think that the Andu were just in the
process of inventing the ideals of statehood and corporate existance above
the level of clan or family. In part due to their experience with the power
of Azrais organized Empire (from which they fled) and as a consequence of having settled in a much more fertile land than their original homeland (which I imagine to be extensive dry plains or plains and savanna). I certainly wouldnt want to argue that the Mongols weren`t sophisticated, but
I would prefer to compare the Andu with either the Celts or the Goths.

Both of these factors would be much more significant in the years
immediately after the battle, so there would have been a dramatic
“die off”
of bloodlines in the next several generations. The methods needed to
preserve bloodline and how they were passed on to subsequent generations
would probably have taken at least a generation or three to
discover. There would be no investiture ceremony that passed a bloodline
from one character to another immediately after the battle–unless one
supposes that knowledge was somehow divinely gifted to scions. How long
might it have taken to develop that ability? I dont know, but Id think
it would take years to explore the powers of a bloodline at the
domain level.

Good point re: the die-off of unmaintained bloodlines and the implications
of that for the generations following Deismaar. Ill have to take some time to digest that. I also like the idea that it takes some time for marriage practices to change in the cultures. It is interesting to speculate that the most powerful scions in the generation following Deismaar were those whose parents were young enough not to be married before the battle, and who happened to meet their spouse at or immediately after the battle. Only this small proportion would carry the fullest strength of their bloodline into the next generation. I imagine that Roele was one of these lucky ones, and most of the other Great bloodline possesors ancestors probably were too.

I wonder if we can create an argument that the practice polygamy was
partially responsible for the die-off of the Masetians. (I have no evidense
that they did, just pure speculation.)

Mark V.


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Mark VanderMeulen wrote:

>>-----Original Message-----
>>From: Birthright Roleplaying Game Discussion
>>[mailto:BIRTHRIGHT-L@ORACLE.WIZARDS.COM]On Behalf Of Gary
>>
>>…
>>
>>Yikes, that`d make for less than a thousand scions after

Deismaar. I think
there should be more than that.

Why? The thing about biological organisms is that they tend to increase in
number over time (unless limited by their environment). It seems to me that
a logical question when dealing with a heritable trait that confers a
pronounced fitness benefit is why it HASNT spread to the entire population. >Part of my logic for keeping the numbers of individuals that survived >Deismaar low is to explain why scions arent more common. Part of the answer
>may be that the trait also leads to a decrease in reproductive success.
>Upper classes do tend to have lower birth rates, but I think that over the
>years there were many lords who would dally with any wench who would have
>them (or whom they could coerse), and many a lord who enjoyed rapine as one
>of the rewards of success on the battlefield. Perhaps scions have reduced
>fertility for some reason, or reduced reproductive success with non-scions.
>Mark V.
>
That would contradict some of the novels, e.g. Iron Throne, were the
unblooded elf Sylvanna needs a potion to prevent becoming pregnant from
Aedan (the chancellor). At an other point in this book Aedan explains
that some commoner females tend to seduce nobles just for the reason to
get with child and be supported by their former lover - if not that he
accepts the bastard as son, then at least with some financial support.
bye
Michael Romes


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Gary wrote:

> At 04:11 PM 3/21/2003 -0600, Mark Van der Meulen wrote:
>
> …
> Definitely true, plus one has to take into consideration that while they
> were “refugees” it`s very possible to look at them not so much as fleeing
> as fighting a sort of forced migration–the long-term cultural equivalent
> of a fighting withdrawal. Many real world peoples of very fierce
> reputation were themselves being forced out of their homelands by other
> aggressive cultures in the long standing push and shove of culture
> clash. Several of the Cerilian cultures are based, in fact, on real
> world
> cultures that have had long periods of just that kind of paradigm.

Visigothi and Aurigothi or what was their names? (Westgoten and Ostgoten
in german)
Mmmh, even the Kimbern und Teutonen who were finally defeated by the
roman legions were quite numerous despite being just tribes.

> Probably another thing to consider is that Cerilia is the end of the
> tether
> in that process for many of the people who travelled there. The
> convergence of cultures on Cerilia indicates that there was no place else
> to go.

That does not mean that there is no other place. It could just be that
the evil empire blocked all ways except north.

> The Battle of Deismaar could represent for many of the participants
> a sort of massive last stand and, therefore, attract all able bodied
> combatants amongst peoples long inured to war.

Then a much larger number of people ought to be blooded if really ALL
able men had fought at Deismaar.
The number of scions nowadays leads me to the conclusion, that while
everyone at Deismaar got blooded more or less, that a large number of
people either died at Deismaar due to the cataclysm that is good
described e.g. at the end of “The Spider´s Test” or not present at Deismaar.
bye
Michael Romes


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At 10:33 AM 3/22/2003 +0100, Michael Romes wrote:

>>Several of the Cerilian cultures are based, in fact, on real world
>>cultures that have had long periods of just that kind of paradigm.
>
>Visigothi and Aurigothi or what was their names? (Westgoten and Ostgoten
>in german)
>Mmmh, even the Kimbern und Teutonen who were finally defeated by the
>roman legions were quite numerous despite being just tribes.

:slight_smile: Unless pressed for more information, I try to avoid actually naming the
historical paradigms I`m thinking of since that seems to lead so often to a
rather baroque discussion of such cultures…

Probably another thing to consider is that Cerilia is the end of the
tether in that process for many of the people who travelled there. The
convergence of cultures on Cerilia indicates that there was no place else
to go.

That does not mean that there is no other place. It could just be that the
evil empire blocked all ways except north.

It gets pretty icy and inhospitable north of Cerilia…

The Battle of Deismaar could represent for many of the participants a
sort of massive last stand and, therefore, attract all able bodied
combatants amongst peoples long inured to war.

Then a much larger number of people ought to be blooded if really ALL able
men had fought at Deismaar. The number of scions nowadays leads me to the
conclusion, that while everyone at Deismaar got blooded more or less, that
a large number of people either died at Deismaar due to the cataclysm that
is good described e.g. at the end of “The Spider´s Test” or not present at
Deismaar.

Im starting to lean towards an interpretation that not everyone at the battle actually got a bloodline. The power of the gods was a bit selective in its manifestation, and there was some intelligence behind that selection.

Gary


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Gary wrote:

> At 10:33 AM 3/22/2003 +0100, Michael Romes wrote:

…

>>> Probably another thing to consider is that Cerilia is the end of the
>>> tether in that process for many of the people who travelled there.
>>> The convergence of cultures on Cerilia indicates that there was no
>>> place else to go.
>>
>> That does not mean that there is no other place. It could just be
>> that the evil empire blocked all ways except north.
>
> It gets pretty icy and inhospitable north of Cerilia…

The Cerilians fled from Aduria, if the evil empire blocked any way
except north, it had to be Cerilia they went to.
I did not mean north of Cerilia but north of Aduria (the starting point
of their escape. Mmmh, if Aebrynnis is a planet like earth, and the
Dragon Isles of the Basarji are southeast of nowadays Khinasi, wouldn´t
they have been west of Aduria? Why did all or at least nearly all 6
tribes flee north?

Had the evil empire a strong presence on the sea as well? Or just
controlled all ports/the coast while the tribes still retained the
ablity to move away without being annihilated immediately because the
evil empire did concentrate on the coast and not inland?

>> Then a much larger number of people ought to be blooded if really ALL
>> able men had fought at Deismaar. The number of scions nowadays leads
>> me to the conclusion, that while everyone at Deismaar got blooded
>> more or less, that a large number of people either died at Deismaar
>> due to the cataclysm that is good described e.g. at the end of “The
>> Spider´s Test” or not present at Deismaar.
>
> I`m starting to lean towards an interpretation that not everyone at

the battle actually got a bloodline. The power of the gods was a bit
selective in it`s manifestation, and there was some intelligence
> behind that selection.

It is not behind the mechanic for bloodtheft used in the draft, there is
is just RP released and people around receiving something or nothing
according to the number of RPs.

If the same system is used to determine the result at Deismaar, then the
power of the old gods had to be limited or REALLY large numbers of
people around to have some get no bloodline at all.
bye
Michael Romes


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From: “Michael Romes” <Archmage@T-ONLINE.DE>

> At an other point in this book Aedan explains
> that some commoner females tend to seduce nobles just for the reason to
> get with child and be supported by their former lover - if not that he
> accepts the bastard as son, then at least with some financial support.
> bye
>

This proof is very weak IMO. First, it might just be class thinking on his
part - a justification for using what is effectively prostitutes. Second, if
the chance of conception is low, liaisons with nobles are relatively
risk-free. And even if pregnancy occurs, rare bastards are more likely to be
recognized than common bastards.


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On Sat, 22 Mar 2003, Michael Romes wrote:
> Visigothi and Aurigothi or what was their names? (Westgoten and Ostgoten
> in german)

Visigoth and Ostrogoth in English, probably. Thats how I picture the Anuireans et al at Deismaar. It seems to be reasonably consistent with the setting material, too. Check out the description of Haelyns shield
in the BoP, as a “tribal war board” or something to that effect.

Communication is possible only between equals.
Daniel McSorley- mcsorley@cis.ohio-state.edu


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----- Original Message -----
From: “Michael Romes” <Archmage@T-ONLINE.DE>
Sent: Saturday, March 22, 2003 3:33 AM

> Visigothi and Aurigothi or what was their names?

Visigoths and Ostrogoths.

Kenneth Gauck
kgauck@mchsi.com


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> -----Original Message-----
> From: Birthright Roleplaying Game Discussion
> [mailto:BIRTHRIGHT-L@ORACLE.WIZARDS.COM]On Behalf Of Michael Romes

> Visigothi and Aurigothi or what was their names? (Westgoten and Ostgoten
> in german)
> Mmmh, even the Kimbern und Teutonen who were finally defeated by the
> roman legions were quite numerous despite being just tribes.

Oh, well if pushed I guess I would say the Visigoths. I vaguely remember
some estimates of the numbers of Visigoths settling in Iberia as being
around 200,000, and I see some parallels between later economic development
in Anuire and in Iberia. Although I suppose that the 200,000 figure may be
numbers of men rather than total persons in an even-sex-ratio population, as
I was thinking of it. Mostly I was refering in general to the germanic
tribes that invaded the senescent roman empire. The Celts, my other example,
were hardly uniform either.

Mark V.


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